The Market Is Still Moving—But It’s Rewarding Precision, Not Optimism
Data-Driven Insights From 124 Recent Sales
We process millions of data points across more than a decade of local sales, pricing behavior, and inventory shifts. Here’s what the last 90 days are telling us about pricing accuracy, competition, and where leverage actually shows up in this market.
We spend a lot of time telling clients that the market doesn’t feel one way or another—it behaves in patterns. To stay grounded in those patterns, we rely on proprietary analytical software that processes millions of data points across more than a decade of local sales, pricing behavior, and inventory shifts.
The goal isn’t to predict the future with certainty (anyone claiming that should make you nervous), but to stack probabilities in your favour—whether you’re buying, selling, or simply deciding when to act.
The Headline: Pricing Accuracy Mattered More Than “Negotiation”
What the last 90 days show (sold set: 124 sales)
83.1% of sold listings had at least one price reduction (Original → Current)
Median reduction size: ~4.84%
The Cleanest “Pricing Skill” Signal
Compare listings that sold without a reduction vs those that needed one:
Homes priced accurately from the start sell 3× faster than those requiring price reductions
Median Sold ÷ Original List: 1.008 (typically at/over original list)
Median Sold ÷ Original List: 0.952
Median reduction: ~4.84%
Homes that were priced right early sold about 3× faster and didn’t need the “walk-down” pricing process.
Where the Action Was: Areas With the Most Sales and Inventory
Top Sub-Areas by Sales (90-Day Sold Count)
The Most Useful “Pressure” Metric: Active-to-Sales Ratio
(Think of this as “how many sellers are competing for each recent sale.”)
For sellers in Departure Bay / Diver Lake / Chase River: The supply picture is materially healthier.
For sellers in Hammond Bay, North Nanaimo, Cedar, Upper Lantzville: You’re competing harder — pricing and presentation have to be sharper.
“Best Floorplan Type” — Measured by Demand, Speed, and Seller Competition
Ranked using three signals: Sales volume (what buyers actually chose), Median DOM (market velocity), and Active-to-sales pressure (competition among sellers).
The Demand Leaders (Most Sales)
Split Entry homes demonstrate the best combination of speed and healthy seller competition
Split Entry — median DOM: 28 days (9 sales)
Also had the best supply balance by layout with an Active-to-sales ratio of 1.44 (13 actives / 9 sales)
If you want the single best “performs well” layout in this dataset:
✅ Split Entry (fastest + healthiest seller competition)
The Mainstream “Best Performers”
Rancher — median DOM 44 (23 sales)
Ground Level Main Up — median DOM 45 (37 sales)
Main Level + Lower — median DOM 46 (24 sales)
These are consistent performers, but note: most still required reductions to get there.
Price Adjustment Behavior: What It Says About Early 2026
Active vs Pending Tells a Very Clean Story
The market rewards disciplined pricing: most successful listings undergo ~4% reduction before going pending
Median DOM: 31 days
Only 23.0% show a reduction so far
Median reduction: ~4.16%
Median DOM: 57 days
83.6% show a reduction
Median reduction: ~4.27%
Sellers often start high → sit → reduce about ~4% → then the listing converts to pending.
That’s exactly what you’d expect in a market that’s moving, but still disciplined.
Assessment vs List vs Sale — What the Ratios Actually Mean
Even with mixed 2025/2026 assessments, the dataset still gives useful directional truth:
Key Point: Assessment is not the pricing anchor — list strategy is.
The market typically didn’t “correct to assessment.” It corrected from Original List down to reality, via reductions.
That’s why Original → Current is the most important control lever for sellers and agents.
What This Means for Buyers and Sellers Heading Into the Next 60–90 Days
For Sellers
The market is rewarding pricing accuracy more than anything.
If you want the “18-day sale” outcome, the data says:
- Don’t rely on reductions as the plan
- Launch closer to the real clearing price
In inventory-heavy zones (North Nanaimo / Cedar / Hammond Bay / Upper Lantzville), you need:
- Sharper entry price
- Stronger presentation
- Clearer value story versus competing actives
For Buyers
Your leverage is strongest where inventory pressure is highest:
- Hammond Bay
- Upper Lantzville
- Parts of North Nanaimo and Cedar
The discount tends to appear before the deal, as price adjustments, not last-minute “negotiation.”
Watch for listings that have been sitting 40+ days without adjustment — those sellers may be starting to recalibrate their expectations.
